Su H, Dong F, Liu Y, Zou R, and Guo H. 2017. Robustness-Optimality Tradeoff for Watershed Load Reduction Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. Water Resour Manag:1-14. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-017-1689-3 Abstract Practical and optimal reduction of watershed loads under deep uncertainty requires sufficient search alternatives and direct evaluation of robustness. These requirements contribute…
Quinn, J. D., P. M. Reed and K. Keller (2017). “Direct policy search for robust multi-objective management of deeply uncertain socio-ecological tipping points.” Environmental Modelling & Software 92, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.017: 125-141. URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216302250 Managing socio-ecological systems is a challenge wrought by competing societal objectives, deep uncertainties, and potentially irreversible tipping points….
Hamel, P. and BP Bryant (2017). Uncertainty assessment in ecosystem services analyses: Common challenges and practical responses. Ecosystem Services 24, 1-15. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.008 Abstract: Ecosystem services (ES) analyses are increasingly used to address societal challenges, but too often are not accompanied by uncertainty assessment. This omission limits the validity of their findings and…
Cockerill, K., M. Armstrong, J. Richter, J. Okie. 2017. Environmental Realism: Challenging Solutions. Palgrave MacMillan 145p. ISBN 978-3-319-52824-3. http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319528236 Abstract from Chapter 1: Why Challenge Solutions? Labeling a problem ‘environmental’ creates a pervasive belief that science and technology can, should, and will generate solutions for issues ranging from pandemic disease to…
Gong, Min , Robert Lempert, Andrew M Parker, Lauren A. Mayer, Jordan Fischbach, Matthew Sisco, Zhamin Mao, David H. Krantz, and Howard Kunreuther. “Testing the Scenario Hypothesis: An Experimental Comparison of Scenarios and Forecasts for Decision Support in a Complex Decision Environment.” Environmental Modeling and Software 91 (2017): 135-55. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216305060…
Lahtinen, T. J., J. H. A. Guillaume, and R. P. Hämäläinen (2017), Why pay attention to paths in the practice of environmental modelling?, Environmental Modelling and Software, 92, 74–81, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.019 Taking the ‘path perspective’ helps to understand and improve the practice of environmental modelling and decision making. A path is…
Derbyshire, J. and Giovannetti, E. (2017) Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting, Technological Forecasting & Social Change: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302980 In this paper we show that New Product Development (NPD) is subject to fundamental uncertainty…
Almeida, S., Holcombe, E. A., Pianosi, F. and Wagener, T. (2017). Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225-241, doi:10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017. http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/225/2017/ Landslides have large negative economic and societal impacts, including loss of life and damage to infrastructure….
Malekpour, S., Brown, R. R., de Haan, F. J., & Wong, T. H. F. (2017). Preparing for disruptions: A diagnostic strategic planning intervention for sustainable development. Cities, 63, 58–69. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.12.016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275116301299 Despite the emphasis on sustainable development in some of the contemporary planning and policy rhetoric, we face an implementation…
Hermans, Leon M., Marjolijn Haasnoot, Judith ter Maat, Jan H. Kwakkel. (2017). Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways. Environmental Science & Policy 69: 29-38. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.12.005 . https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1UFzx5Ce0rOGPN Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to…