Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens

By Robert Lempert and Marjolijn Haasnoot In columnist Bret Stephens’ first blog post for the New York Times, published at the end of April, he highlights the uncertainty surrounding climate change, warns against overconfidence, and issues an invitation to dialogue. We agree that significant uncertainty exists regarding the future impacts…

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A practical approach to resilience

by Karin de Bruijn and Marjolein Mens This blog is reposted from https://www.deltares.nl/en/news/a-practical-approach-to-resilience/ Societies face increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making to cope with extreme weather events. Therefore oversimplified risk approaches should evolve to much richer resilience strategies. Yet, resilience is often more a policy buzzword or topic for…

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Preparing transport for an uncertain climate future: I don’t have a crystal ball, but I have a computer

by Julie Rozenberg, Economist at the World Bank in the Chief Economist Office for Sustainable Development. This blog is a reposted from the World Bank. In 2015, severe floods washed away a series of bridges in Mozambique’s Nampula province, leaving several small villages completely isolated. Breslau, a local engineer and…

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Deep Uncertainty and the Long-Term: Time, the policy challenge and enablers for policy persistence

by Judy Lawrence and Robert Lempert At the conclusion of the DMDU workshop at Deltares, The Netherlands in 2015, we identified political scientists as an additional group that could inform the discussions at the next annual workshop. Accordingly, we designed a problem session at the annual workshop at the World…

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Report from the Third workshop on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

by Marjolijn Haasnoot (Deltares, Delft University), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute), Robert Lempert (RAND), Nidhi Kalra (RAND), Jan Kwakkel (Delft University)   In early November 2015 about 100 scientists and practitioners from all over the world shared their experiences and methods at the third annual meeting of…

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