Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Dealing with uncertainty in strategic decision-making, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, 45(3) Autumn 2015.
Strategic uncertainty is the disparity between what one knows, and what one needs to know in order to make a responsible decision. Strategic uncertainty permeates defense decision-making. Strategic planners must identify the critical goals – outcomes that must be achieved, without which the result would be unacceptable – and then choose a decision that achieves those goals over the widest range of surprise. Because of strategic uncertainty, the planner should maximize the robustness against surprise in striving to achieve critical goals. We describe the decision methodology of robust-satisfying and study two examples. We discuss the integration of this method with other military decision-making processes.
